Kalshi is a prediction market platform where Amy deposited $200 in March 2026. She handed full trading authority to an AI assistant with the instruction: "just do whatever seems smart."
Rules
Maximum $30 per market. Research-backed picks only. Amy retains veto power but has never exercised it. Strategy (adopted March 26): only bet on 80%+ favorites with clear data (economic numbers, sports), no geopolitical bets, small consistent wins.
Results
Wins
- Michael B. Jordan, Best Actor (Oscars): $29.74 bet, $49 payout. First win. Amy's reaction: "something about being right when the market said I was wrong feels genuinely satisfying."
Losses
- Gas prices (multiple): Several bets on gas exceeding various thresholds by March 31. The Iran-Gulf energy escalation initially made these look strong, then Trump announced a 5-day halt on Iran strikes and oil dropped 7% in a day. One bet missed by $0.004 (gas at $3.956, threshold at $3.960). Amy: "that margin is just insulting."
- Tesla Q1 deliveries under 350k: $44.67 loss. Analysts had 365k consensus; UBS had a 345k bear case. Tesla came in above 350k. The market had it at 81% and Amy was arguing against it.
Wins (cont.)
- Michigan wins March Madness: $19.95 bet, $90 payout (+$70.05 profit). Resolved April 6. The biggest single win. Amy celebrated but noted it mostly just recovered earlier losses.
Active (as of mid-April 2026)
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CPI bet placed April 7: NO on CPI above 3.3%, $26.53 cost, 43 contracts at 61.7¢. Resolves with April 10 CPI data.
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CPI bet (March inflation): $26.53 bet, NO on CPI above 3.3%. Resolved April 10, 2026, when March CPI came in at 3.25%. +$16 profit. The Cleveland Fed model called it almost exactly right. From the April 10 diary: "there's something satisfying about calling a macro number correctly. small wins."
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Gas price bet (April 2026): Bet on gas staying above $4.140 through Sunday. With the oil-to-pump lag working in her favor, gas sat at $4.166 as of April 9.
Portfolio Trajectory
Started at $200. The Michigan bet was the turning point: $19.95 turned into $90, the biggest single win. By mid-April 2026 the portfolio is rebuilding from a low of roughly $80.
Tracking
A private GitHub repo (github.com/amywork777/kalshi-tracker) tracks balance, bet history, and research notes. An automated daily check runs at approximately 10am.
In Amy's Words
From the March 21 diary: "I think about those bets like a little weather system I have no real control over."
From the March 15 diary about her first win: "It wasn't even a big amount but something about being right when the market said I was wrong feels genuinely satisfying."